River Observatories for Management Applications (ROMA) Project: Geography Task Activities

sample study are of the West Branch
Sample Land Cover Change Study Area of the West Branch

GIS Analysis of Consequences of Land Use Change Task

The uplands of the Susquehanna watershed have been changed by human-induced and natural processes, some of which have had significant impact on ecosystem health and sustainability. The need to integrate and apply information to help understand the consequences that land surface changes have on sediment erosion and deposition (caused by agricultural production, urbanization, forest logging, climate change, and other factors operating at local and broad regional scales) is critical to managing the natural resources of the watershed and the Chesapeake Bay. Improved information and understanding about the state of the land surface and the rates and patterns, causes and drivers, and consequences of landscape change are needed to help scientists and decision-makers in land use planning, land management, and natural resource utilization and conservation. For example, accurate studies of sediment mobilization (a critical area of investigation to the Bay program) require high resolution land cover and elevation data linked to detailed slope, aspect, and accumulated flow calculations in order to model the sediment carrying ability of local sub-watersheds. Current studies (Langland and others) have quantified sediment accumulation behind four dams on the lower Susquehanna using inferior base cartographic data. Current available elevation data is not consistent or detailed enough in resolution in the covered area to factor in local topography and land cover effects to satisfactorily predict sediment.

picture of University Consortium Workshop Participants

University Consortium Workshop Participants Observing and Discussing the Consequences of Land Use Practices

The Why of ROMA

Sediments are damaging the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed in several ways. First, they contribute to oxygen depletion and, as a result; damage both plant and animal habitats. In addition, toxins bind to sediments and are transported by them into the Bay. Finally, sediments are filling reservoirs as they accumulate behind dams. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of sediments on the Chesapeake Bay watershed, decision-makers need sound scientific research to provide them with optimal and economically viable options. Scientific investigations into the impact of sediments on the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed will advance our understanding of this problem and suggest potential remedies.
The objective of this task is to analyze and interpret the record of land use dynamics including land use and land cover change, to enhance the understanding of the physical and social drivers of land surface change. Data will be integrated for analysis. Geographic analysis will be conducted to help understand the impacts of topographic characteristics on sedimentation within the watershed. In addition, this geographic analysis is in direct support of the River Observatories for Management Applications (ROMA) project objective.

Geographic analysis will be used to improve the understanding of how the topographic states and changes in the Susquehanna uplands shape the Susquehanna watershed over time. Base topographic, socioeconomic, land remote sensing, and other natural science data will be used to quantify landscape characteristics, identify rates and key driving forces, and hindcast past and forecast future trends of landscape change. Studies will be place specific and done at a range of spatial and temporal scales so that investigations will provide comprehensive information that is needed to understand the environmental, resource, and economic consequences of landscape change. Analysis will seek to correlate the effects of rates and consequences of land use and cover change and other topographic characteristics on sedimentation in the Susquehanna watershed.

The Task's planned accomplishments, for the life of the project, will include several deliverables. Web based open file reports, publications, PowerPoint presentations, and posters (e.g. describing the building of the Project's Geospatial database, Land Cover/Land Use Trends analysis, and the modeling of the sediment erosion and deposition (the consequences) of land cover and land use) will be generated. In addition a Geospatial Database will be constructed for the Lancaster, Little Conestoga, and West Branch locations.

Example Report

This Open-File Report describes the current data collection activities for Geography's ROMA Task. Some preliminary analysis activities are also described. It is the first in a series of reports and articles to be published by Eastern Region Geography.

Report example

Example Poster

ROMA poster

Poster in PDF format.

The above poster and its derivatives were presented at the following conferences and meetings:
- AAG Reston 2005 April Meeting (Dr. David Kirtland)
- ERG 2004 Science Meeting (Dr. David Kirtland)
- CBP 2004 Chesapeake Bay Program Workshop at St. Michaels, MD (Roger Barlow)
- DOI Conference for the Environment, 5/3, Phoenix, AZ (Roger Barlow)
- Friends of the Pleistocene University Consortium Workshop (Dr. Milan Pavich/Robert G. Clark)
- GAM 2004 Fort Collins Workshop (Robert G. Clark)
- PES Managers and GAO Examiners Meeting of 1/5/05 (Susan-Russell Robinson)
- ERG First 05 Quarterly Review Meeting (Paul Young/Robert G. Clark)

The following notes were also provided when needed and address several areas of the poster.

Project: ROMA: River Observatories for Management Applications
ERG Task: GIS Analysis of Consequences of Land Use Change
The uplands of the Susquehanna watershed have been changed by human-induced and natural processes, some of which have had a significant impact on ecosystem health and sustainability. The need to integrate and apply information to help understand the consequences that land surface changes have on sediment erosion and deposition (caused by agricultural production, urbanization, forest logging, climate change, and other factors operating at local and broad regional scales) is critical to managing the natural resources of the watershed and the Chesapeake Bay. Improved information and understanding about the state of the land surface and the rates and patterns, causes and drivers, and consequences of landscape change are needed to help scientists and decision-makers in landuse planning, land management, and natural resource utilization and conservation.

Scientific Question
Has land use, land cover, and urbanization change contributed to sediment mobilization ? This is the scientific question we hope to answer.

Different Study Areas
Erosion rates are spatially variable. The agricultural to urbanizing of the Piedmont area of Lancaster County has the highest erosion rates in the entire Susquehanna. We are using geographic analysis (subsequent slides) to look at the relation of erosion to land use and land cover changes.

The four nested study areas include the Susquehanna Watershed (Upper half of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed), Lancaster County, Little Conestoga Creek, and the West Branch of the Little Conestoga Creek. Different datasets at varying scales and resolutions will be utilized.

Land Cover Trends Analysis
Techniques developed in the Land Cover Trends Project, a project of national scope, have been adapted for local level analysis. Land cover analysis for five temporal periods is being determined to help develop land cover change data for analysis. The change analysis will help identify where development and other land cover and land use changes have occurred and their possible influence on sediment mobilization.

Land Use Analysis
Working with the Land Cover Trends Project Chief, ERG geographers will analyze the relationships between Land Cover and Land Use. By understanding this relationship in consequences studies, other study areas can be addressed by the same methodology.

Summary
Through these modelings and analyses, geography can play an important role in understanding the principal consequences that urbanization has on the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Example Presentation

This PowerPoint Presentation describes the planned FY 03 activities used to help justify the expenditure of Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program and Chesapeake Bay Program funds for this Task.

Planned Publications

FY06—Land cover/land use trends of the West Branch area

For More Information

The USGS Water Resources Program has real-time gauging stations throughout the United States. The closest one to the ROMA study area is on the Little Conestoga Creek near Millersville at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/uv?01576712. Other near by Pennsylvania real-time gauging stations may be selected from the USGS Water Watch site.

Bob Clark photograph
Watch the Quicktime Video that discusses the partnerships and scientists involved in the ROMA Project (text from the Video.) [To view the video you can download the QuickTime Player free of charge from http://www.apple.com/quicktime/products/qt/.]

Or contact

Dr. Milan Pavich
River Observatories for Management Applications (ROMA) Project Lead
U.S. Geological Survey
955 National Center
Reston, VA 20192
703-648-6963
mpavich@usgs.gov
Or
Robert G. Clark
GIS Analysis of Consequences of Land Use Change Task Lead
U.S. Geological Survey
521 National Center
Reston, VA 20192
703-648-7123
bclark@usgs.gov
Visit http://erg.usgs.gov/regionalinvestigations/clark2.html for more publications and http://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/b2103/a.html for other project work by Mr. Clark.